![]() North Korea’s nuclear program has advanced significantly since the last major diplomatic efforts at denuclearization. In one sense, the pessimists are not pessimistic enough. Many of those who are pessimistic about the Trump-Kim summit point to failed efforts to achieve complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization and ask why this time should be any different. 3 Pessimism: Denuclearization Is Harder Now Than During Past Efforts This history offers cause for pessimism, optimism, and caution about current prospects for denuclearization. The history of nuclear negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang, as well as multilateral discussions such as the six-party talks, is far more complex than most voices in the media and policy circles acknowledge. History can be a useful guide to avoid repeating mistakes, but events are rarely as neat and tidy as a sound bite seems to suggest. ![]() Meanwhile, optimists suggest that something new in the upcoming process has opened the possibility of a different outcome. 1 Some skeptical of the bilateral summit charge that this history of failure is likely to repeat itself. All have failed to produce the complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization that the United States has sought on the Korean Peninsula. The United States has engaged North Korea in two major denuclearization processes, not to mention separate inter-Korean and multilateral efforts, over the past quarter-century. After significant brinkmanship over whether the meeting would take place, the on-again, off-again summit looks likely to be held as originally planned. “Here we go again.” “It’s Groundhog Day with North Korea.” “We’ve seen this script before.” These sorts of refrains have been common among North Korea watchers - and those who play them on TV - ahead of the summit slated for June 12 in Singapore between North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un, and President Donald Trump. No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it’s not the same river and he’s not the same man.
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